2015 Latin American and Caribbean Macroeconomic Report
From the document:
Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to grow at only a modest pace in the comingyears given relatively low growth across the globe. While the United States is now growing more strongly implying a likely rise in U.S. interest rates, discussed extensively in last year’s report, risks to growth persist in Europe and Japan, and growth may also decline more than anticipated in China.
Chapter 2 explores the implications for the region of a baseline and a more negative scenario for European, Japanese and Chinese growth. A positive shock to U.S. growth, coupled with continued low oil prices, would be a net benefit for the region and provide a boost to countries in the Caribbean and Central America. A further conclusion is that while the baseline forecast implies a per capita growth rate of about 2.2% for this decade, the region would have to significantly boost productivity to achieve per capita growth rates as high as other successful regions.
The recent declines in commodity prices are likely to have serious implications. The results of econometric models explored in Chapter 3 do not indicate that a sharp rebound in prices is likely. Projections based on the baseline forecasts for world growth indicate a mild recovery in prices for oil and copper but the negative scenario employed in Chapter 2 suggests continued declines. However, all forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty...
The title of this report suggests that the region is in a labyrinth with potential exits to strong recovery and sustainable and inclusive growth obstructed by a set of global and domestic factors. The research neither pretends to be complete nor exhaustive but the spirit of the analysis is to attempt to understand each of the selected factors considered, so that policies can be found that would forge a successful path. The final chapter brings together the various policy suggestions highlighted in each chapter.